Controls on Last Glacial Maximum ice extent in the Weddell Sea embayment, Antarctica

The Weddell Sea sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is hypothesized to have made a significant contribution to sea-level rise since the Last Glacial Maximum. Using a numerical flowline model we investigate the controls on grounding line motion across the eastern Weddell Sea and compare our results with field data relating to past ice extent. Specifically, we investigate the influence of changes in ice temperature, accumulation, sea level, ice shelf basal melt, and ice shelf buttressing on the dynamics of the Foundation Ice Stream. We find that ice shelf basal melt plays an important role in controlling grounding line advance, while a reduction in ice shelf buttressing is found to be necessary for grounding line retreat. There are two stable positions for the grounding line under glacial conditions: at the northern margin of Berkner Island and at the continental shelf break. Global mean sea-level contributions associated with these two scenarios are ~50 mm and ~130 mm, respectively. Comparing model results with field evidence from the Pensacola Mountains and the Shackleton Range, we find it unlikely that ice was grounded at the continental shelf break for a prolonged period during the last glacial cycle. However, we cannot rule out a brief advance to this position or a scenario in which the grounding line retreated behind present during deglaciation and has since re-advanced. Better constraints on past ice sheet and ice shelf geometry, ocean temperature, and ocean circulation are needed to reconstruct more robustly past behavior of the Foundation Ice Stream

Antarctic ice sheet paleo-constraint database

We present a database of observational constraints on past Antarctic Ice Sheet changes during the last glacial cycle intended to consolidate the observations that represent our understanding of past Antarctic changes, for state-space estimation, and paleo-model calibrations. The database is a major expansion of the initial work of Briggs and Tarasov (2013). It includes new data types and multi-tier data quality assessment. The updated constraint database “AntICE2” consists of observations of past grounded and floating ice sheet extent, past ice thickness, past relative sea level, borehole temperature profiles, and present-day bedrock displacement rates. In addition to paleo-observations, the present-day ice sheet geometry and surface ice velocities are incorporated to constrain the present-day ice sheet configuration. The method by which the data is curated using explicitly defined criteria is detailed. Moreover, the observational uncertainties are specified. The methodology by which the constraint database can be applied to evaluate a given ice sheet reconstruction is discussed. The implementation of the “AntICE2” database for Antarctic Ice Sheet model calibrations will improve Antarctic Ice Sheet predictions during past warm and cold periods and yield more robust paleo model spin ups for forecasting future ice sheet changes

Major ice‐sheet change in the Weddell Sector of West Antarctica over the last 5000 years

Until recently, little was known about the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. In the last 10 years, a variety of expeditions and numerical modelling experiments have improved knowledge of its glaciology, glacial geology, and tectonic setting. Two of the sector's largest ice streams rest on a steep reverse‐sloping bed yet, despite being vulnerable to change, satellite observations show contemporary stability. There is clear evidence for major ice‐sheet reconfiguration in the last few thousand years, however. Knowing precisely how the ice sheet has changed in the past, and when, would allow us to better understand whether it is now at risk. Two competing hypotheses have been established for this glacial history. In one, the ice sheet retreated and thinned progressively from its Last Glacial Maximum position. Retreat stopped at, or very near, the present position in the Late Holocene. Alternatively, in the Late Holocene the ice sheet retreated significantly upstream of the present grounding line, and then advanced to the present location due to glacial isostatic adjustment, and ice‐shelf and ice rise buttressing. Both hypotheses point to data and theory in their support, yet neither has been unequivocally tested or falsified. Here, we review geophysical evidence to determine how each hypothesis has been formed, where there are inconsistencies in the respective glacial histories, how they may be tested or reconciled, and what new evidence is required to reach a common model for the Late Holocene ice sheet history of the Weddell Sea sector of West Antarctica

Mass balance of the ice sheets and glaciers – progress since AR5 and challenges

Recent research shows increasing decadal ice mass losses from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and more generally from glaciers worldwide in the light of continued global warming. Here, in an update of our previous ISMASS paper (Hanna et al., 2013), we review recent observational estimates of ice sheet and glacier mass balance, and their related uncertainties, first briefly considering relevant monitoring methods. Focusing on the response to climate change during 1992-2018, and especially the post-IPCC AR5 period, we discuss recent changes in the relative contributions of ice sheets and glaciers to sea-level change. We assess recent advances in understanding of the relative importance of surface mass balance and ice dynamics in overall ice-sheet mass change. We also consider recent improvements in ice-sheet modelling, highlighting data-model linkages and the use of updated observational datasets in ice-sheet models. Finally, by identifying key deficiencies in the observations and models that hamper current understanding and limit reliability of future ice-sheet projections, we make recommendations to the research community for reducing these knowledge gaps. Our synthesis aims to provide a critical and timely review of the current state of the science in advance of the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report that is due in 2021

Antarctic ice rises and rumples: Their properties and significance for ice-sheet dynamics and evolution

Locally grounded features in ice shelves, called ice rises and rumples, play a key role buttressing discharge from the Antarctic Ice Sheet and regulating its contribution to sea level. Ice rises typically rise several hundreds of meters above the surrounding ice shelf; shelf flow is diverted around them. On the other hand, shelf ice flows across ice rumples, which typically rise only a few tens of meters above the ice shelf. Ice rises contain rich histories of deglaciation and climate that extend back over timescales ranging from a few millennia to beyond the last glacial maximum. Numerical model results have shown that the buttressing effects of ice rises and rumples are significant, but details of processes and how they evolve remain poorly understood. Fundamental information about the conditions and processes that cause transitions between floating ice shelves, ice rises and ice rumples is needed in order to assess their impact on ice-sheet behavior. Targeted high-resolution observational data are needed to evaluate and improve prognostic numerical models and parameterizations of the effects of small-scale pinning points on grounding-zone dynamics

Antarctic geothermal heat flow: future research directions

Antarctic geothermal heat flow (GHF) affects the ice sheet temperature, determining how it slides and internally deforms, as well as the rheological behaviour of the lithosphere. However, GHF remains poorly constrained, with few borehole-derived estimates, and there are large discrepancies in currently available glaciological and geophysical estimates. This SCAR White Paper details current methods, discusses their challenges and limitations, and recommends key future directions in GHF research. We highlight the timely need for a more multidisciplinary and internationally-coordinated approach to tackle this complex problem

Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018

In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise1,2, and it is expected to be so in the future3. Although increases in glacier flow4–6 and surface melting7–9 have been driven by oceanic10–12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the degree and trajectory of today’s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet’s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. Although the ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 335 ± 62 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,800 ± 339 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.6 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,971 ± 555 billion tonnes (52%) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,827 ± 538 billion tonnes (48%) of ice loss was due to increased glacier discharge, which rose from 41 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. Between 2013 and 2017, the total rate of ice loss slowed to 217 ± 32 billion tonnes per year, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and as ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the IPCC’s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 50 to 120 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate

Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020

Ice losses from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have accelerated since the 1990s, accounting for a significant increase in the global mean sea level. Here, we present a new 29-year record of ice sheet mass balance from 1992 to 2020 from the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE). We compare and combine 50 independent estimates of ice sheet mass balance derived from satellite observations of temporal changes in ice sheet flow, in ice sheet volume, and in Earth's gravity field. Between 1992 and 2020, the ice sheets contributed 21.0±1.9g€¯mm to global mean sea level, with the rate of mass loss rising from 105g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 between 1992 and 1996 to 372g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 between 2016 and 2020. In Greenland, the rate of mass loss is 169±9g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 between 1992 and 2020, but there are large inter-annual variations in mass balance, with mass loss ranging from 86g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 in 2017 to 444g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 in 2019 due to large variability in surface mass balance. In Antarctica, ice losses continue to be dominated by mass loss from West Antarctica (82±9g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1) and, to a lesser extent, from the Antarctic Peninsula (13±5g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1). East Antarctica remains close to a state of balance, with a small gain of 3±15g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1, but is the most uncertain component of Antarctica's mass balance. The dataset is publicly available at 10.5285/77B64C55-7166-4A06-9DEF-2E400398E452 (IMBIE Team, 2021)